**Strat Fan, January 1992**

**Predicting SOM Card Ratings**

By Bruce Bundy

Card
prognostication is a Pandora's Box to avid Strat players. Newspaper statistics
alone will cripple you at draft time. It's time to give our Stratfans the
ability to convert published statistics into SOM numbers.

Beware! Such
knowledge has been found to lopside and destroy leagues of all tenure. Use with
discretion.

Be patient! To
bring every-body along, we'll play it one game at a time. First, we will lay a
firm foundation in math basics.

Be alert!
Harold Richman isn't writing this column. There are hundreds of aspects to deal
with in card forecasting. With your help, we can expect a 95 percent accuracy
in all formulas presented here. This is a knowledge pool. If you've got a good
formula or idea, let us know.

A bit of
warmth from this journalist: I'm 36 and I've played SOM for 20-plus years. My
wife has two children and myself to deal with as I work 100 hours a week, then
brave the fires of SOM countless times. I have all SOM football cards from '67
to *'85 *and my buddy has all the
baseball cards.

Forecasting
SOM cards accurately is an edge, not a guarantee. The game is all in the dice.
If they roll your way, you win; if they don't, you lose.

You've been
warned: It's time to open Pandora's Box.

**ELEMENTARY SOM**

There are 216
different chances each at-bat

Each card has
six columns of numbers ranging from 2 to 12. Three dice are rolled. One die
(the indicator die) blindly chooses one of the six columns. Each column has an
equal opportunity to be chosen.

The other two
dice are added. There are 36 different ways two six-sided dice lay on *a *table for a result (1&1, 1&2,
l&3, l&4,

l&5, l&6, 2&1,
2&2, 2&3,2&4, *2&5, *2&6,
3&l, 3&2, 3&3, 3&4, 3&5, 3&6, 4&1, 4&2,
4&3, 4&4, 4&5, 4&6, 5&l, *5&2, *5&3, 5&4, 5&5, 5&6, 6&1, 6&2,
6&3, 6&4, 6&5, 6&6). Each one of these rolls is a chance.

**SOM “CHANCES” **

**Dice Roll Chances**

** 2 1 chance**

** 3 2 chances**

** 4 3 chances**

** 5 4 chances**

** 6 5 chances**

** 7 6 chances**

** 8 5 chances**

** 9 4 chances**

** 10 3 chances**

** 11 2 chances**

** 12 1 chance**

There are, for
example, six chances for two dice to equal seven (l&6, *2&5, *3&4, 4&3, 5&2, 6&l). The two dice will
always equal 36 chances. The indicator die works in conjunction with the two
dice to form six columns of 36 chances, or six times 36, which equal 216
chances. Additional procedures, such as 1-20 split card draws are subchances.

In SOM
formulas, desired results will be either in chances or subchances. Walks, for
example, are chances. They never require an additional roll. Hits require an
occasional split-deck pick. Hits are subchances.

Here are Cal
Ripken's final statistics for his MVP 1991 sea-son:

**AB H 2B-3B-HR HBP W IW** **650 210 46- 5- 34 ** **5
** **53 15**

**K SB-CS DP E**

** 46
6-1 19 11**

This is enough
information to predict a fairly accurate card. Non-mainstream data such as HBP,
IW & GIDP are important, but not essential, to squeak by.

Data, however,
is the key. Cards are based on entire league standards. Baseball Weekly issues
of Oct. 31, Nov.14 and Nov. 21 provide deep information (but *no *intentional walks). Lefty-

righty information will be required
in the same format when forecasting advanced cards.

**FORMULA #1: WALKS**

**WALK=**

**(((W-IW)*216)/(AB+(W-IW))-9**

An SOM
batter's walk equals (((Walks minus Intentional Walks) times 216) divided by
(At Bats plus (Walks minus Intentional Walks))) minus 9.

How it works:
This walk formula is more than 20 years old. Walk must be determined before any
other batting chance. The importance of intentional walks cannot be
underestimated. If data for intentional walks is not available, use the
Baseball Weekly to get the top 10 intentional walked batters for each
division, then subtract 5 percent from the walks for the rest of the major
league batten:

**Walk= (((W*.95)*216)/ (AB+(W*.95)))-9,**

The
"-9" at the end of the formula reflects the nine walks that appear on
an average pitcher's card. When access of all statistics are available, a more
articulate number can be achieved using AL and NL league ABs, Walks and
Intentional Walks with this formula:

**AL WaIk=(((W-IW*216)/ AB+(W-IW)/2.**

For the 1991
season, figure -9.1 AL and -8.7 NL. Other aspects, such as HBP, do have an
effect, but will be analyzed later.

Finally, round
the result from the formula to the nearest whole number. Ripken's result is 2.8302326, 50 his walk is
3. If it were 2.4999999, go with the 2. That's Strat.

This formula
has as 95 per-cent accuracy rating, the highest rating this formulator will
give. Knowing the league stats are soon, next month will cover subchances hit,
double, triple and home run.

Any comments?
Write:

Bruce Bundy, 4474 Outlook
Dr., Brooklyn, OH 44144.

**a**