SOM Cardmaking Clinic

By Bruce Bundy

The time has come to close the book for awhile on the batter's card. Every fall, even this humble encryptor has always had to dig through a steep pile of computer paper to dig up last year's cardmaking-forecasting notes to prepare for the new batch of final stats. But, thanks to STRAT FAN, you get this easy-to-read glossary for making your future batters' cards (make several copies!):

FORMULA #1: BATTER'S WALKS

walk=(((W-IW)*216)/(AB+(W-IW) + HBP)) -9

Let's Formulate It!

This is one in a series of articles on forecasting Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. Bruce Bundy has been at it since l968 and says he achieves up to 95 percent accuracy. But keep in mind that only the game company has the correct formulas, that many of them rely on statistics not readily available and that some ratings are subjective.

Comments should be directed to: Let's Formulate It!, c/o Bruce Bundy, 4474 Out-look Dr. Brooklyn, OH 44144

changes and a lack of historical data have made attempts unreliable at best We're still working on it!

RUNNING

Another subjective rating. Use last year's rating with a suggestion: Reduce the players running speed by I every two years after they turn 32 years old.

BALLPARKS, CLUTCH HITS

This area is still virgin territory and will be delayed until after covering the pitcher's cards. Any ideas or example formulas on these areas would be appreciated.

FORMULA #2: HIT BY PITCH

hbp=((HBP*216)I(AB+ (W-IW)+ HBP))

FORMULA #3: BATTER'S HIT

hit =(((BA-.265)+ BA) *(108-(somW + somHBP))

FORMULA #4: BATTER'S DOUBLE

double = ((4320 *DOUBLE)/(AB + ( W-IW)+HBP))-90

FORMULA #5: BATTER'S TRIPLE

triple = ((4320 *TRIPLE)/(AB + (W-IW)+HBP))-1S

FORMULA #6: BATTER'S HOMERUN

home run = ((4320 *HOMERUN)/(AB + (W-IW)+HBP))-50

FORMULA #7: BATTER'S PATTERN CHART

use chart - not really a forrnula!

FORMULA #8: BATTER'S STRIKEOUT

k=(216*K)/(AB+(W-IW)+HBP)) - 17

FORMULA #9: BATTER'S gbA

gbA =((1140*DP)/(AB+(W-IW)+RBP)

FORMULA #10: BATTER'S 1ST SB

SUCCESS #

somlSB=((SB/(SB+CS)+.13) *20

FORMULA #11: BATTER'S 2ND SB SUCCESS#

som2SB (somlSB/3) +1

FORMULA #12: BATTER'S LEAD

CHANCES

somSBLEAD =36 * ((SB + CS) /((H + W +

HBP) *.8s)~(D+ T+ HR)

FORMULA #13: ASTERISKS

som* = IF ( somlSB + somSBLEAD)> 24

FORMULA #14: FIELDER'S ERRORS

somE=(e* 1458)/INNINGS FIELDED

Detail, explanations and a few alternative methods are contained in the articles that have been published each month since the January STAT FAN.

To create basic cards, simply remove the HBP in each formula.

Remember, for more accurate results, replace the last number in FORMULA #1 and FORMULAS #4-8 with the league mean. Compute the league mean by plugging the actual league-total statistics into the same formula.

Lefty/Righty individual and league totals are required to do accurate lefty/righty cards.

Here are thoughts on the few aspects not covered in the formulas:

BUNTING

Reputation carries a heavy burden here. Stats for sacrifice hits are insufficient. For instance, Don Mattingly is a B bunter this year despite 0 sacrifice hits in 1991. Use that player's last card rating for bunting and hit & run with one exception: If that player has 10 or more sacrifice hits, make him an A.

OUTFIELDERS' ARMS

Reputation reigns again. The only barometer other than the previous year's rating would be the Elias Fielding Ratings (outfielder's arms) which comes out mid-season.

CATCHERS' ARMS

This may be solvable, but too many

N or W POWER

This vague rating is meant to prevent weak hitters from hitting pitcher's HRs, not identify power hitters. Best rule of thumb would be to give all players with a 30+ somHR (30 subchances) an N rating. Give all those with 0 somHR a W. Then peruse the remaining players for those who are usually Ns, but had off years. Hate to leave it like that, but it really can be that vague historically.

What would this all mean without a decent rating system to put it all together for you? There is an excellent example of SOM ability expressed as a single number: The batter rating system. This will make your Bondses, Griffeys, and Ripkens rise to the top.

RATING = (somH + (((somW+ somHBP)

* 0.8) + (((somHR * 6) + somT * 4) + (somD

* 2)) 1(116 - (somH + somW + so#viHBP))~

+ ((som#15B + som~2SB) * 0.1) - (somDP

0.1)

Note: By presorting the players to be rated by position, a more exact rating can be obtained (for each position). To tell what players are the best at each position, add the following to the end of the RATING formula:

(4 - somFIELDING) *10)

These formulas and the two charts (HITTER'S PATTERN and PRIORITY) are all the tools needed to create your own hitter's cards from top to bottom. They are only tools, though. Your sweat on trial on error is still needed to make these tools work effectively for you.

Next month, we will hold class on how to read/write formulas such as these, and then delve into Prognosticating 102 =The Pitcher's Cards.